Today's Wall Street Journal has a slightly superficial piece on the future of automobiles titled One Billion Cars.
"One billion. By 2020 or sooner, that's how many cars and light trucks there will be on the road around the world. That's one for every 6 1/2 people on the planet -- and over 25% more vehicles than we have today."
The numbers are interesting, big and provide some valuable perspective to those concerned about how we're all (and all is a lot of people) going to get around in the decades to come. But hidden in small type under the graphs is the disclaimer:
"Note: Among key assumptions underlying these projections are that present trends continue, that no new policies be implemented, that consumer behaviors do not change significantly, and that alternative fuels and radical technological innovation do not significantly penetrate the market. Limits in oil availability are also not considered in the projections."
Imagine what an equivalent projection about horse and steam locomotive utilization would have been in 1850. Before the internal combustion engine, the automobile, the airplane and petroleum. We'd be mired in manure.
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